Coronavirus and the scientific view
Community conversations by Michael Abraham
Coronavirus is here to stay, according to Dr. Margie Lee, a Professor at Virginia Tech’s Veterinary School, and we need to continue taking precautions like wearing masks and social distancing.
As a leading expert in microbiology, Margie knows what she’s talking about. And she’s worried that science has become politicized.
As we look down the road a few months from now, she says, “There’s only three scenarios: it gets worse, it gets better, or it stays the same.
“The same means that we continue to minimize infections by keeping people separated to prevent transmission. That’s biological fact. R0 (pronounced “are-not”) is the term we use to describe how many people each infected person can infect. If R0 is 1, then one person infects one other. Anything less than 1 means the transmission rate is decreasing. If you turn everybody loose, then R0 will inevitably rise. People aren’t capable of being diligent. As we increase interaction, R0 will go up. Period. It will not stay the same.
“So infections will go up or down. The only ways it can go down is if everybody who is susceptible already gets infected. We already know that’s not true. Right now, only 2% to 5% of people have been exposed. So we’re far from herd immunity. Herd immunity kicks in typically around 40-60% to cut transmission.
“R0 is a characteristic both of the disease and of human behavior. Put people close together and they’ll infect each other. Some contagious diseases are more contagious than others. Look at prisons and senior living facilities. It’s not just that they’re more susceptible. They’re captive in a closed space.”
Professor Lee explained that the coronavirus is a species of virus, along with flu, rabies, and others. We humans have co-evolved with microorganism, which surround us always. To those we’ve had contact with over the generations, we’ve developed resistance, because they’ve killed susceptible people. The problem with this coronavirus is that it’s novel; our bodies and immune systems haven’t seen it before.
And it’s random – spontaneously generated by nature. The random chance of a new virus is increasing because the conditions are changing. Human population is on the rise. The climate is changing. We are expanding our habitats into those previously only occupied by animals. So we’re running into pathogens we haven’t seen. The animals in those habitats have co-evolved with those pathogens, but they’re new to us. And that’s why they’re so dangerous.
And it’s not just viruses! There are fungi, bacteria, amoebas, and other pathogenic microorganisms that can plague us.
“We were finding an incredible variety of coronaviruses in unexplored habitats,” she noted. “We knew that these viruses would eventually affect humans.”
So can a microorganism destroy a species? Fortunately not.
“The nature of diversity is that some proportion of a species will have a higher resistance than others. The microorganism will kill the susceptible portion and spare the rest. That’s what co-evolution is. Fortunately, humans are diverse. Resistance is complicated.
“Some cultural practices increase risk,” she said. “For example, some time ago I remember attending communion at a Catholic Church where dozens of people were drinking out of the same cup. And I thought to my self, ‘No. I don’t think so.’ And then they did.
“There are sanitation differences. Genetic differences. Some have more receptors to the viruses. There is no way our modern science can predetermine this.
“What’s been killing lots of people is their immune system overreacting to the infection. That may save them from some other infections, but in this one it’s killing them. This is the cytokine storm where the body’s chemical messengers overwhelm the response. Cytokines tell the white blood cells where to gather. In a storm, they over-gather and it messes up everything.
“I’m not certain we have more infected people than China or any other country. It is not knowable how prevalent it is here or anywhere else right now. But the illness and death rate has been high in America. We have an aging population and many high-risk people.
“As a scientist, what worries me the most is that people don’t understand the nature of science and it has become politicized. Science at its best is the search for truth; how things work. Science right now is extraordinarily active in understanding and solving this pandemic. The scientific reaction to this is unprecedented. The information that we’ve acquired and validated in a short period of time is astounding, remarkable. I’ve been stunned! This is why governments fund scientific research at universities and research facilities. We already know lots about this. 
“I’m used to people having a low functional grasp of complex concepts. They want ‘yes and no,’ ‘black and white.’ Science isn’t like that. It’s nuanced.
“People across the spectrum are being asked to understand and accept the science and follow recommendations that are inconvenient for them. People are going to die. It concerns me that they’ll blame that on science. We’re supposed to ‘fix’ it; it isn’t fixable in the short term. People don’t care about scientific assessments of planetary physics because it doesn’t affect them. This does.
“Some people want to believe COVID-19 was created in a laboratory in China. I pulled the (genome) sequence and could tell that wasn’t true. It was created by nature. But people ascribe a political motive to it. Politicians seek an enemy, a boogie man.
“This is the latest but it won’t be the last pandemic. We’ve been lucky in the last 30 to 40 years in that most people here in America have not dealt with anything this severe. Influenza is an extraordinarily talented pathogen. You and I are alive today because of the vast investment into controlling it with planning and vaccines.
“As a human being in this society, I believe we all have a part to play and ways to contribute. We can all help each other. Those of us who still have jobs and income can help those who don’t. We can support local businesses. We can check on our neighbors. People who can contribute, which is all of us, should contribute.
“People are waiting for a miracle. There won’t be one. But we can all be part of the solution. Do something.”
Michael Abraham is a businessman and author of eight books. He lives in Blacksburg.