Lots of hand-wringing and analysis typically follows in the aftermath of an election. After Republicans swept the statewide elections and may pick up six seats or more in the House of Delegates, depending on possible recounts, today is certainly a feel-good day for the Republican Party.

“I think what it says is when you run candidates who actually campaign on firm ideas and a coherent message and run as Republicans you have success,” said Tim Murtaugh, communications director for the Republican Party of Virginia.

“Our success in the statewide ticket and what we’re going to see in the pickups in the House of Delegates begins and ends with the guy at the top of the ticket,” Murtaugh added. “(Bob McDonnell) was the finest candidate we’ve had since George Allen. He talked about what was important to people—kitchen table issues. He ran a fantastic campaign.”

But few candidates seemed to inspire voters to a large degree, at least if the voter turnout is an indication. Across the state, only about 40 percent of registered voters actually cast votes in the Nov. 3 election.

Virginia Tech Political Science Professor Craig Brians said that turnout in Tuesday’s election says less about Virginians’ interest in the political process than it is a direct result of a lack of voter mobilization efforts by either Creigh Deeds or McDonnell. Some voters seemed to still have a political hangover from last year’s long and grinding presidential campaigns, while, perhaps related, others expressed a weariness.

While many stayed away from the polls, it’s clear that the majority who did voted Republican. But how significant is that in a show of overall Republican strength in the state?

“The election results certainly give Republicans hope, although they should be careful not to assume that this means Virginians have changed,” Brians said. While Virginians may or not have changed, surely some changes will be coming in the way state government is run after eight years of Democratic leadership at the top.

“Gov. McDonnell will not have too much leeway in terms of new programs, given the state budget crunch,” Brians said. “It’s more likely that he’ll pursue conservative social policies that involve denying or restricting the benefits that state employees or those receiving state benefits might receive. Now that the election is behind him and he doesn’t need to characterize himself as a centrist, it will be interesting to see if Gov. McDonnell reverts to the far-right policies he previously pursued.”

Radford University Political Science Professor and Department Chairman Matt Franck said McDonnell ran on jobs, roads, and schools. “The first one is something he and the state government can affect at the margins, but the national economy is the decisive factor,” Franck said. “The second and third things on that list cost money, so how to raise it? Raise taxes? That could depress things further in a recession. Cut taxes? Sometimes works to raise revenue if you spur economic activity, but that’s much more dependent on the variables in federal tax policy. For better or worse, Richmond is dependent on Washington to a large degree. National policies that help the national economy will help Virginia’s economy, its revenues, its investments in infrastructure. On other matters like social issues, the Republicans can have their way now, on the other hand.”

Local political scientists did agree that the election results in Virginia were not necessarily a referendum on the administration of President Barack Obama and the Democratic-majority Congress.

“Based upon polling in Virginia and elsewhere in the country, there is little reason to think that this election has national implications, or is a referendum on President Obama’s policies,” Brians said.

“I do not think the governor’s race in Virginia (or in New Jersey) was a ‘referendum’ on the Democratic president or Congress, said Virginia Tech Political Science Professor Karen Hult. “Virginia remains a fairly closely divided, Republican-leaning state; when the state economy is doing poorly, incumbent governors and candidates of the incumbent’s party tend to suffer. Add to that an energized Republican base (and higher turnout) and less excited Democratic activists, along with a strong Republican candidate and campaign with a weaker Democratic campaign, and one gets the McDonnell victory as well as the Bolling and Cuccinelli wins.”

Matt Franck added that every year since 1989, Virginia has elected a governor from the party opposite to the one that won the presidency the year before. “It seems there is a reaction—but an amazingly regular one—to the first year of each president’s administration,” Franck said.  “It is a blow to Obama, but the loss in New Jersey is much bigger, because that wasn’t supposed to happen. And the cherry on top for conservatives is the defeat of gay marriage by referendum in hip, tolerant Maine.”

Tim W. Jackson is Editor of the New River Voice.