In three previous polls by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has trailed Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in regard to the Nov. 4 presidential election. In the fourth poll from Mason-Dixon, just released today, Obama leads by 2 percent over McCain. The margin of error is at plus or minus 4 percent.

The Mason-Dixon poll of 625 registered and likely Virginia voters, conducted Monday and Tuesday, found that 47 percent of those polled favored Obama and 45 percent favored McCain.

Gail Montuori, who heads up the Democratic Party in Radford, said that Obama’s rise in the polls in Virginia is the result of overall Democratic success here. “The Virginia voters have been happy with two Democratic governors [Mark Warner and Tim Kaine] and Sen. Jim Webb,” Montuori said. “They have seen the Democrats follow through with promises and an ideology that is in line with the voters.”

But despite many more campaign offices and numerous trips to Southwest Virginia by the Obama campaign, the Democratic candidate has failed to gain much ground on the Republican candidate in this area. In Southwest Virginia, according to the Mason-Dixon poll, McCain still holds a comfortable lead over Obama at 54 percent to 39 percent.

Dr. Craig Brians, professor of political science at Virginia Tech, agreed that Democrats such as Kaine, Warner, Webb, and U.S. Rep. Rick Boucher have done well in Southwest Virginia, but he cautions, “They are Virginia Democrats and not national Democrats. When you look at Obama, who has voted with national Democrats 96 percent of the time, that’s a different story here.”

With less than two weeks until the election, Obama supporters are hoping to make a final push in Southwest Virginia. “We are reaching out to each voter by canvassing and phone calls,” Montuori said, adding that she hopes that explaining the differences between the candidates and debunking negative accusations will win more voters to the Obama side.

Obama supporters from other parts of the country are making plans to come to Virginia soon to help the Obama campaign make its last push in this swing state. Virginia, which hasn’t voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, is obviously up for grabs this year. People such as Veken Gueyikian will be coming down from the New York-New Jersey area. Gueyikian said he will be coming to Southwest Virginia Oct. 29 to Nov. 4, “canvassing and knocking on doors, making sure everyone knows where to go to the polls and gets out to vote.”

Dr. Joe Lane, Hawthorne Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Emory & Henry College said, “There are lots of reasons Obama would expect to be behind in Southwest Virginia. But if Obama can hold McCain to 55-56 percent of the vote here, he will win the state. The bigger question is why is Obama not behind by more, and the distinct possibility is that McCain has not worked hard to secure Southwest Virginia.”

That being said, the McCain campaign just announced today that Alaska Governor and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin is expected to visit Salem on Monday.

Brians said that it’s been interesting that up until now the McCain campaign has not paid a lot of attention to Virginia, and when it has it has been on the periphery of the state, “just outside the beltway and in the coastal areas.”

Brians said that with McCain’s lack of resources spent in Virginia, he wonders if the McCain  campaign either thought it had Virginia locked up or was writing it off. He cautioned that writing off the state would be a big mistake for McCain because he said “there is no way John McCain can win the election without winning Virginia.”

Obama’s strength in the state is clearly in Northern Virginia, where he holds a 61 percent to 31 percent lead. Obama also has gone from trailing in the Hampton Roads area to leading by 5 percentage points according to the Mason-Dixon poll.

In other recent polls, the Obama lead is considerably larger than in today’s Mason-Dixon poll. A SurveyUSA poll released this week had Obama with a 51 percent to 45 percent lead in Virginia, while in a Rasmussen Reports poll from Oct. 20, Obama held a 54 percent to 44 percent lead in the state.

Lane said that he tends to agree more with the other polls over the Mason-Dixon poll. “According to every other poll taken in October, Obama has a lead that appears to be stable between 6-10 points,” Lane said.

“The last non-Mason-Dixon poll to show McCain ahead was an ARG poll that completed its calls on September 29,” Lane continued. “In other words, Obama has led consistently in at least 10 publicly published polls over the last four weeks. If this race were within the margin of error, one candidate would not win every single poll that is taken. Although I would not argue that the Virginia race is a done deal, I think Obama’s lead is bigger than this Mason-Dixon poll indicates.”

On the national stage, a Gallup Poll of likely voters released today shows Obama with a 52 percent to 44 percent lead. Two other major national polls were released on Tuesday. In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, Obama led 53 percent to 44 percent, and in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Obama led 52 percent to 42 percent.

Tim W. Jackson has enjoyed watching the political process during this election “season.”